Understanding Declining NIW Approval Rates in 2024

USCIS routinly releases approval and denial rates for various application types.  Looking at the self-sponsored applications (Extraordinary Ability (EA) and National Interest Waiver (NIW) those rates changed drastically over the last year.

For the entire 2024 Fiscal Year (October 1, 2023-September 30, 2024) the following are the rates for these applications:

First off, it should be noted that previous years, the approval rating for the NIW was around 80%, whereas the approval rating of the EA has been as low as 55%.

Second, the above does not give the whole story. Breaking this down by Quarter gives a lot more context:

As can be seen, while the EA did have some quarters with a higher approval rating and some with a lower, they were all not that far off.  However, the NIW drastically declined as the year went on, from 76% down 15 percent to 61%.  What this tells us is that USCIS is approving far fewer NIWs now than they use to even at the beginning of the fiscal year.

While we cannot definitively say why this happened, we can say that we have seen USCIS take a much stricter position on many, many cases.  Requiring more and better documentation both of the national importance of the proposed endeavor (not the general area, but the specific endeavor and role of the foreigner).  Additionally, we have also seen a lot of inconsistency in the adjudications as well - similar cases can be treated widely different from each other for no apparent reason.

While we do not have figures for this fiscal year as of yet, my guess would be that they track closer to the last two quarters of the last fiscal year rather than the first two.  Expect fewer approvals and more inconsistent opinions ahead.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.